Let me be honest – as a lifelong basketball fan, I’ve always found the NBA Draft Lottery one of the most nerve-wracking events of the year. It’s that rare moment when hope and probability collide, where a single bounce of a ping-pong ball can reshape a franchise’s future. And when we talk about the 2020 NBA Lottery odds, there was an extra layer of uncertainty hanging over everything. I remember thinking back then, just like in that telephone interview quote I came across recently: “with the uncertainty that comes with age, year-to-year.” Only here, it wasn’t about age—it was about odds, luck, and the sheer unpredictability of the process. Teams weren’t just competing on the court anymore; they were competing in a virtual room, waiting for envelopes or digital draws to determine their fate.
The Golden State Warriors, for instance, finished the 2019-2020 season with the league’s worst record, which technically gave them the highest probability—a solid 14% chance—to land the number one overall pick. But as any fan who’s followed the draft knows, having the best odds doesn’t guarantee anything. In fact, looking back at the data now, the team with the highest odds has only won the lottery something like three times in the last decade. That’s a sobering thought, isn’t it? It’s a bit like what that interviewee hinted at: in the face of stronger competition—or in this case, tougher odds—some teams might prefer a longer-term strategy rather than banking on a single lucky break. The Minnesota Timberwolves, for example, had multiple picks and complex trade scenarios in play, which made their selection probabilities especially fascinating to track.
Let’s break down those 2020 NBA Lottery odds a bit more. The system was still using the weighted format introduced a few years earlier, designed to discourage outright tanking. The bottom three teams—Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves—each had a 14% shot at the top pick, but the probabilities dropped off pretty quickly after that. By the time you got to the eighth-worst team, the odds were down to about 6%, and it kept shrinking from there. I recall running some rough calculations myself, just out of curiosity, and realizing how slim the chances were for mid-lottery teams to jump into the top three. For example, the Chicago Bulls, sitting at seventh, had only a 7.5% chance at a top-three selection. That’s the kind of detail that makes you appreciate the high-stakes nature of the event—it’s not just about who gets the first pick, but how the entire draft order can shift in unexpected ways.
Now, I’ve got to admit, I’ve always had a soft spot for underdog stories in the NBA Draft Lottery. Who can forget the 2019 Pelicans, who defied the odds with just a 6% chance to land Zion Williamson? In 2020, there was a similar buzz around teams like the Charlotte Hornets, who landed the third pick despite lower initial odds. That’s where the team selection probabilities really come into play—because once the order is set, front offices have to weigh not just talent, but fit, future assets, and even locker room dynamics. I remember chatting with a friend who works in sports analytics, and he pointed out how some teams, much like the Ateneo reference in that interview, might “prefer a much longer union” by trading down for multiple picks rather than swinging for one superstar. It’s a strategic depth that often goes unnoticed by casual fans.
Of course, no discussion of the 2020 NBA Lottery odds would be complete without mentioning the Minnesota Timberwolves’ eventual selection of Anthony Edwards. At the time, debates were raging about whether he was the right choice over LaMelo Ball or James Wiseman. From my perspective, Edwards brought a blend of athleticism and scoring potential that felt like a safer bet, even if Ball’s playmaking was more flashy. But here’s the thing—those pre-draft projections are always a mix of hard data and gut feeling. Teams spend months analyzing everything from shooting percentages to personality traits, yet there’s always an element of chance. It reminds me of that phrase again: “uncertainty that comes with age, year-to-year.” Only in the NBA, it’s the uncertainty that comes with draft picks, season-to-season.
Wrapping up my thoughts on the 2020 NBA Lottery odds and team selection probabilities, it’s clear that this event is more than just a prelude to the draft—it’s a microcosm of risk management in professional sports. Whether you’re a fan crunching numbers at home or a GM making franchise-altering decisions, the blend of math and mystery is what keeps us all hooked. And as the league evolves, with play-in tournaments and new CBA rules shifting team strategies, I suspect future lotteries will only get more intriguing. For now, looking back at 2020 offers a compelling case study in how probability, preparation, and a little bit of luck intertwine to shape the NBA landscape.
